2010 - 2011 Winter Outlook

Here in the Upper Midwest, we are use to the cold and snowy months of winter.  However, some years are colder and snowier than others if a La Nina is in effect.  La Nina is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, the exact opposite of an El Nino.  Both La Nina and El Nino have dramatic impacts on our weather here at home, and around the globe!  For example, last year's El Nino resulted in record-breaking rain and snowfall causing severe flooding in parts of the U.S. while other areas of the nation saw record heat and drought.  Even though La Nina is the opposite of an El Nino, it too can bring weather extremes to parts of the U.S.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has recently come out with a news report saying that not only is a La Nina in place, but it will strengthen and persist through the winter months of 2010 and 2011.  So what does this mean for the winter around the U.S.?

Here are some regional highlights:

The Pacific Northwest

Expect to see a colder and wetter than normal winter.  La Nina typically brings cooler than normal and snowier conditions to this region during the winter months.

The Southwest

Don't be expecting to see much snow here.  All of the southern states typically see a warmer and drier winter during a La Nina, which also increases the risks of wildfires in these regions.

Northern Plains
Expect plenty of snow!  La Nina typically brings colder and wetter conditions to this area of the nation during the winter months.  This will also lead to a higher likelihood of flooding during the spring melting season!

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, & Southeast
These areas are already experiencing some very dry conditions with some areas facing severe drought conditions!  Unfortunately, like the southwest U.S., La Nina also brings warmer and drier conditions during the winter months to this area as well, which will only help to prolong the drought conditions here.

Florida
Drier than normal, but has equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.  This will also create above normal wildfire conditions here.

Ohio & Tennessee Valleys
Expect more storms this winter as La Nina typically brings wetter, but warmer, conditions to this area during the winter months.  The above normal precipitation will also likely lead to a higher likelihood of flooding in the area.

Northeast & Mid-Atlantic
This is one area La Nina has very little direct impact!  Weather patterns here are more driven by conditions over the North Atlantic and the Arctic.  However, if there is enough moisture in place in the region, areas in the Northeast could see above normal snowfall.

Central U.S.
This area is right in between the very dry and warm portions of the southern U.S. and the cold and wet conditions of the northern plains that La Nina typically brings.  Thus this area is likely to see equal chances of above or below normal precipitation and temperatures during the winter months.

Hawaii
Headed to Hawaii on a winter vacation?  You might want to pack an umbrella.  La Nina typically brings the island state wetter conditions from December through February.  However, the drought they have been seeing here this past year is expected to continue through the winter, with many areas on track to see their driest year ever!  Drought relief is most likely on the smaller islands in the chain.

Alaska
La Nina often brings a colder than normal winter to this frigid state, and this year should be no exception. 

Here at home in Wisconsin, I'm expecting to see a slightly cooler than normal winter with more snowfall, especially along the shores of Lake Superior in the north and the southeastern portions of the state.  Granted, this outlook does not project where and when snowstorms will hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations, but it gives us a better view at to what to expect from mother nature during the coldest portion of our year.

Until next time,
Keep your eye on the sky!

Trick or Treating in Snowsuits?

It's been a while since I last posted - I guess I got wrapped up in the festivities and amazing colors of the autumn season!  Speaking of autumn, Halloween is just around the corner.  I though it might be kind of fun to have a bit of a flash back to 1991, when a good share of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin were hit with what became known as the Halloween Blizzard of 1991.



Snowfall totals - Halloween Blizzard of 1991

 The Halloween Blizzard affected a good share of the Upper Midwest between October 31st and November 3rd, 1991.  During the days prior to Halloween, a large storm system over the Atlantic Ocean (this storm was the "Perfect Storm" that hit New England and was the topic of a movie not too long ago) blocked up the flow of weather patterns moving across the United States.  As a result of this "blockade", moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was able to surge northward and interact with an storm system that was parked over Minnesota, Iowa, and Western Wisconsin.  Cold Arctic air was also pouring into the same region from the north behind the system.  The result was a heavy snow pack that fell in large quantities.  Many locations in the eastern half of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin saw record early-season snowfall accumulations (the image to the right shows the snowfall totals), while southern parts of Minnesota, northern Iowa, and western Wisconsin experienced a nasty ice storm.  The cold air that settled into the area immediately following the storm also produced many record low temperatures for the area.  In total, the storm system caused 100 injuries and even 22 deaths in the Upper Midwest.

I vividly remember this storm.  I was almost 6 years old and had begged my mother to take me out trick-or-treating around our neighborhood (What can I say, I was a naive little kid who liked candy!).  Reluctantly, she took me out in the 4-wheel drive pick up truck.  We went through town just fine, even though the main street was ice covered and I did slip a few times going up the main walk to a few houses.  When we got to the east end of town (at the east end of town, there's a hill that takes you down into a valley), there was a semi-truck that had skidded off the road, and was stuck in the ditch.  Needless to say, that was the final straw.  Mom had enough trying to drive around on the ice, and didn't want to take any more chances.  So we headed back home - and luckily got there safely.  We woke up that next day to a winter wonderland with a couple of inches of snow on the ground and ice in the trees.

Had I known then what I know now, I wouldn't have begged my mother to go out that frightful night (all though I did score tons of candy!).  Moral of the story - don't drive during a blizzard/ice storm unless it is absolutely necessary!

Well, that was a nice trip down memory lane.  I hope it jogged your memory as well.  Where were you during the Halloween Blizzard of 1991?  How did it effect your life?  Please post your comments and share with everyone!  ^_^