2010 - 2011 Winter Outlook

Here in the Upper Midwest, we are use to the cold and snowy months of winter.  However, some years are colder and snowier than others if a La Nina is in effect.  La Nina is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, the exact opposite of an El Nino.  Both La Nina and El Nino have dramatic impacts on our weather here at home, and around the globe!  For example, last year's El Nino resulted in record-breaking rain and snowfall causing severe flooding in parts of the U.S. while other areas of the nation saw record heat and drought.  Even though La Nina is the opposite of an El Nino, it too can bring weather extremes to parts of the U.S.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has recently come out with a news report saying that not only is a La Nina in place, but it will strengthen and persist through the winter months of 2010 and 2011.  So what does this mean for the winter around the U.S.?

Here are some regional highlights:

The Pacific Northwest

Expect to see a colder and wetter than normal winter.  La Nina typically brings cooler than normal and snowier conditions to this region during the winter months.

The Southwest

Don't be expecting to see much snow here.  All of the southern states typically see a warmer and drier winter during a La Nina, which also increases the risks of wildfires in these regions.

Northern Plains
Expect plenty of snow!  La Nina typically brings colder and wetter conditions to this area of the nation during the winter months.  This will also lead to a higher likelihood of flooding during the spring melting season!

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, & Southeast
These areas are already experiencing some very dry conditions with some areas facing severe drought conditions!  Unfortunately, like the southwest U.S., La Nina also brings warmer and drier conditions during the winter months to this area as well, which will only help to prolong the drought conditions here.

Florida
Drier than normal, but has equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.  This will also create above normal wildfire conditions here.

Ohio & Tennessee Valleys
Expect more storms this winter as La Nina typically brings wetter, but warmer, conditions to this area during the winter months.  The above normal precipitation will also likely lead to a higher likelihood of flooding in the area.

Northeast & Mid-Atlantic
This is one area La Nina has very little direct impact!  Weather patterns here are more driven by conditions over the North Atlantic and the Arctic.  However, if there is enough moisture in place in the region, areas in the Northeast could see above normal snowfall.

Central U.S.
This area is right in between the very dry and warm portions of the southern U.S. and the cold and wet conditions of the northern plains that La Nina typically brings.  Thus this area is likely to see equal chances of above or below normal precipitation and temperatures during the winter months.

Hawaii
Headed to Hawaii on a winter vacation?  You might want to pack an umbrella.  La Nina typically brings the island state wetter conditions from December through February.  However, the drought they have been seeing here this past year is expected to continue through the winter, with many areas on track to see their driest year ever!  Drought relief is most likely on the smaller islands in the chain.

Alaska
La Nina often brings a colder than normal winter to this frigid state, and this year should be no exception. 

Here at home in Wisconsin, I'm expecting to see a slightly cooler than normal winter with more snowfall, especially along the shores of Lake Superior in the north and the southeastern portions of the state.  Granted, this outlook does not project where and when snowstorms will hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations, but it gives us a better view at to what to expect from mother nature during the coldest portion of our year.

Until next time,
Keep your eye on the sky!