2011 - 2012 Winter Weather Outlook

Hello everyone!  As meteorological winter (December through February) approaches, I though it would be good to give you a heads up as to what you may expect for the next several months - at least weatherwise. 

As I have mentioned in an earlier post, the La Nina that we dealt with last winter faded away this past summer.  Unfortunately, it has made a comeback and will likely play a role in our weather patterns across the nation for this winter.  In addition to La Nina, the lesser known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation could influence our weather as well with large short-term temperatures swings.  As a result of these large temperature swings and strong shifts in the climate patterns, the Arctic Oscillation could overwhelm or amplify the impacts typically seen from a La Nina!

So here is what the scientists at NOAA are predicting for the 2011 - 2012 weather season.

The northwestern US and eastweard into the Great Lakes region will likely see wetter conditions for the winter months, which could mean more snow than normal!  In addition, much of this area, especially the Missouri and Mississippi River Basins saw massive flooding last spring due to so much snow melting from the last La Nina winter.  The increase in precipitation again this winter could once again mean another season of flooding for these river basins!  And on the flip side, areas that need the precipitation the worst are less likely to see it.  The southern US, which is already facing a drought not seen in decades in some areas (namely Texas and Oklahoma), is expected to be much drier than normal.  So the drought will likely continue into next year.  Below, you can see an image of this thanks to the folks at the Weather Channel.



As far as temperatures, that's were it gets a bit tricky.  Typically, a La Nina will bring much cooler conditions to the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and the California coast with warmer conditions for the South Central U.S.  And this is what is expected for this winter as well (as you can see below in the image from the Weather Channel).  However, the tricky part comes from the Arctic Oscillation (remember him?... we'll just call him A.O. from here on out!).  The negative phase of the A.O. pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada that typically lasts a few weeks and are very difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.  The A.O. went strongly negative at times the last two winters and caused outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions across the U.S., including the ice storms that affected the Dallas, TX area before the Super Bowl last January and the massive snow storms across the East Coast the past two winters.  The strong negative A.O. also increases the snowfall amounts around the Upper Midwest as well, along will bitterly cold conditions (below -25F anyone?).  Okay... I think I just sent a shiver up your spine with that comment!



With the much cooler conditions for the Upper Midwest this winter, maybe now would be a good time to take a trip to Hawaii... it's anticipated that they will be warmer and drier than normal!  But to recap, I am expecting a cold and snowy winter for us here in Wisconsin & Minnesota with plenty of temperature swings to keep things interesting!  I hope you have your snow shovels handy!  Until next time, have a great day and stay warm!