NOAA is anticipating 14 to 19 named storms (which included Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, and we've already had 5 tropical storms this year - Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, and Emily). Seven to ten of these storms are anticipated to be hurricanes, half of which could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). These numbers are actually higher than the prediction NOAA made back in May.
So why the increase in the number of storms in the forecast? Here's why:
"Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña. Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season." http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov
Basically, all the right ingredients are coming together at the right time, resulting in prime conditions for an active hurricane season. So if you live or have plans along the Gulf or East Coasts between now and October, keep an eye on the latest forecasts. Forecasts provide a lot of advanced warning when it comes to hurricances and tropical storms, so you won't get caught by surprise. But keep checking the forecast if your going on vacation.
