2011 - 2012 Winter Weather Outlook

Hello everyone!  As meteorological winter (December through February) approaches, I though it would be good to give you a heads up as to what you may expect for the next several months - at least weatherwise. 

As I have mentioned in an earlier post, the La Nina that we dealt with last winter faded away this past summer.  Unfortunately, it has made a comeback and will likely play a role in our weather patterns across the nation for this winter.  In addition to La Nina, the lesser known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation could influence our weather as well with large short-term temperatures swings.  As a result of these large temperature swings and strong shifts in the climate patterns, the Arctic Oscillation could overwhelm or amplify the impacts typically seen from a La Nina!

So here is what the scientists at NOAA are predicting for the 2011 - 2012 weather season.

The northwestern US and eastweard into the Great Lakes region will likely see wetter conditions for the winter months, which could mean more snow than normal!  In addition, much of this area, especially the Missouri and Mississippi River Basins saw massive flooding last spring due to so much snow melting from the last La Nina winter.  The increase in precipitation again this winter could once again mean another season of flooding for these river basins!  And on the flip side, areas that need the precipitation the worst are less likely to see it.  The southern US, which is already facing a drought not seen in decades in some areas (namely Texas and Oklahoma), is expected to be much drier than normal.  So the drought will likely continue into next year.  Below, you can see an image of this thanks to the folks at the Weather Channel.



As far as temperatures, that's were it gets a bit tricky.  Typically, a La Nina will bring much cooler conditions to the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and the California coast with warmer conditions for the South Central U.S.  And this is what is expected for this winter as well (as you can see below in the image from the Weather Channel).  However, the tricky part comes from the Arctic Oscillation (remember him?... we'll just call him A.O. from here on out!).  The negative phase of the A.O. pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada that typically lasts a few weeks and are very difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.  The A.O. went strongly negative at times the last two winters and caused outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions across the U.S., including the ice storms that affected the Dallas, TX area before the Super Bowl last January and the massive snow storms across the East Coast the past two winters.  The strong negative A.O. also increases the snowfall amounts around the Upper Midwest as well, along will bitterly cold conditions (below -25F anyone?).  Okay... I think I just sent a shiver up your spine with that comment!



With the much cooler conditions for the Upper Midwest this winter, maybe now would be a good time to take a trip to Hawaii... it's anticipated that they will be warmer and drier than normal!  But to recap, I am expecting a cold and snowy winter for us here in Wisconsin & Minnesota with plenty of temperature swings to keep things interesting!  I hope you have your snow shovels handy!  Until next time, have a great day and stay warm!

Winter Weather Safety Reminder!

Wow.... it has been way to long since I last posted.  I guess I'm still getting use to blogging, even after a year!  Anyways, I think now would be a good time to review some winter weather terminology and safety tips.  I know most of you have heard this before, but it's something that is very vital for living in the Upper Midwest between November and late March!  So here we go!

First, lets start with the watches, warnings, and advisories you typically hear about this during the late fall, winter, and early spring months and what they actually mean!

Winter Storm Watch
A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is a potential for a winter storm to affect the region during the next 1 to 3 days. It does not always mean the area will be hit by a winter storm, but there is still some uncertainity of the exact path or timing of the event. This is a planning stage. Use this time to ensure you have supplies at home, like some extra food, medications, baby items, etc.. If travel is planned, check ahead and see if a different route or delaying your departure may make your trip safer. Be alert for changing weather conditions.


Winter Weather Advisory
Advisories are issued for those winter weather events that are expected to be more of an inconvenience and should not become life-threatening if caution is exercised. These are often issued for 3 to 6 inches of snow, blowing and drifting snow, freezing drizzle, or a combination of these elements. It may be issued for less snow for early season events, when drivers may not be accustomed to slick roads.


Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warnings are usually issued when dangerous winter weather is expected, occurring, or imminent. The weather can become life-threatening. Criteria includes snowfalls of 6 inches or more in 12 hours, 8 inches in 24 hours, or lower amounts if accompanied by strong winds or a combination of dangerous winter elements. Avoid unnecessary travel.


Blizzard Warnings
The most dangerous winter event is certainly the blizzard. Blizzard Warnings are issued when snow or blowing snow lowers visibilities to a 1/4 mile or less, wind gusts hit 35 mph or higher, and the storm lasts for 3 hours or more. Travel is dangerous and should be avoided if possible.


Ice Storm Warning
Ice storm Warnings are issued when freezing rain will cause widespread glazing. A coating of ice is expected to reach 1/4 inch thick or more on objects and make travel nearly impossible. For lesser amounts of ice, usually a winter weather advisory would be used, but even a thin glaze of ice can make travel difficult. Avoid travel.


Wind Chill Warning
Issued when wind chills of -35 F or lower are expected with wind speeds of 10 mph or more. A wind chill advisory is issued for values between -20 and -34 F. Dress warmly and cover as much exposed skin as possible.

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Now, here are some tips to keep in mind when nasty winter weather comes your way!

Proper winter weather awareness includes preparation. Here are some things that can help you.

When Outdoors:

• Check temperatures and wind chill indicies first.
• Dress warmly, with several layers. Dress for the worst just in case.
• Use a warm coat, gloves or mittens, a hat, and water-resistant boots.
• Cover exposed skin as much as possible.
• Watch for frostbite on finger tips, ear lobes, the nose, or toes.
• Avoid over-exertion. The cold already puts a strain on the body and heart.

At Home or Work - make sure you have:

• Extra flashlights and batteries
• A battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio or AM/FM portable radio
• Extra food and water (2-3 day supply)
• Extra medicine and baby items
• First Aid supplies
• Emergency Heating source**
• Carbon Monoxide Detector

** If you use an emergency heating source, be alert for deadly carbon monoxide gases and never place it near another object that may catch on fire. Many house fires during the winter are caused by incorrect use of a space heater. Keep the space heater at least 36 inches away from other objects and turn it off if you leave the room.

On the farm:

• Move animals to a sheltered area.
• Supply extra food for animals.
• Have a fresh water supply (most animal deaths during the winter are from dehydration).

At School:

• Have an action plan.
• Monitor weather conditions closely.
• Use NOAA Weather Radio to get hourly wind chill values.
• School days may need to be delayed, cancelled, or shortened.

When Traveling:

• Winterize your vehicle. Check the battery.
• Check the forecast and road conditions ahead of time.
• Consider adjusting your route to avoid poor driving conditions.
• Carry a cellular phone for use during emergencies.
• Keep the gas tank near full.
• Coordinate with others your destination and times of travel.
• Yield to snowplows. The snow cloud they produce can lower visibilities to near zero. Stay back - Stay Alive!
• Have a survival kit in your car:
  • Extra blankets or sleeping bag
  • Flashlight with extra batteries
  • First Aid kit with pockey knife
  • Booster cables
  • A rope
  • A small shovel
  • A bag of sand or cat litter for traction
  • Plastic bags (for sanitation)
  • Extra gloves, hat, and socks
  • Non-perishable food items and bottled water
  • Road maps (for alternative routes)
• If you do get stuck:
  • Stay with your car. Do not try to walk to safety.
  • Start the car for about 10 minutes every hour for heat.
  • Keep the exhaust pipe clear of snow.
  • Tie a bright colored (red or orange) cloth to the antenna.
  • Turn the dome light when running the engine.
  • If you must venture away from the car, use a life-line or rope.
• Be careful of Dense Fog. Delay your travel if needed.
  • Do not drive into a dense fog bank. Others may be stopped.
    • In October 2002, a pile-up on Interstate 43 in eastern Wisconsin killed 10 people (see image) during dense fog.
    • In January 2008, another series of accidents in southern Wisconsin led to some fatalities due to dense fog.

 There... I know that was a really long read, but there is a lot of useful information there!  Hopefully, this will aid you this winter as the snow begins to fly around the Upper Midwest.  Until next time (which will hopefully be soon!), have a great day!